The US external deficit is going to be very large. What are then the three possible equilibria?
Given the expansionary fiscal policy conducted at full employment, the US external deficit is going to become very large. For this deficit to be financed by sufficient capital inflows, there are then three possibilities: An increase in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates, but the Fed does not react to a depreciation of the dollar or to the US external deficit; A steepening of the dollar yield curve, but long-term interest rates are kept low by the large amount of bonds purchased by US institutional investors; The third possibility is then a depreciation of the dollar, as from 2002 to 2008.