Report
Patrick Artus

The US external deficit is going to be very large. What are then the three possible equilibria?

Given the expansionary fiscal policy conducted at full employment, the US external deficit is going to become very large. For this deficit to be financed by sufficient capital inflows, there are then three possibilities: An increase in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates, but the Fed does not react to a depreciation of the dollar or to the US external deficit; A steepening of the dollar yield curve, but long-term interest rates are kept low by the large amount of bonds purchased by US institutional investors; The third possibility is then a depreciation of the dollar, as from 2002 to 2008.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch