The war in Ukraine: The starting point of deglobalisation?

The war in Ukraine will most likely lead to Russia being cut off from the Western countries' economies: closure of Western companies in Russia, halt to imports of commodities from Russia, etc. Many companies wonder whether such a situation could be repeated in the future with China, given the high tension between China and the Western countries, and the risk of conflict around Taiwan. We examine the consequences of a separation of the global economy between an OECD bloc and a Russia + China bloc. There would be price increases (commodities, products that would no longer be imported from China), lost investments in Russia and China, a contraction in global trade, a loss of well-being but a reindustrialisation of the OECD; potentially drastic effects on the international monetary system.