The worst-case scenario for the euro zone: Zero or even negative potential growth

The euro zone is currently affected by: Zero productivity gains, linked in particular to the decline in working hours and new attitudes among employees; Population ageing. If there are zero productivity gains and population ageing, potential growth in the euro zone will be negative. Such negative potential growth would have very unpleasant consequences: A contraction in the euro zone's weight in the global economy; A structural imbalance in the euro zone’s public finances, due to high spending on pensions, healthcare, etc.; A complete absence of distributable surpluses (in the form of higher wages, shorter working hours or more generous social policies ); A lack of investment attractiveness. As soon as population ageing is not offset by additional productivity gains, very negative mechanisms appear. It is therefore necessary to find ways to avoid a situation of negative potential growth.