Report
Patrick Artus

The yield spread between the United States and the euro zone is going to remain very wide

The yield curve in the United States is going to become very flat, given that interest rates (between 1 day and 10 years) are around 3%. In the euro zone, the ECB is not going to raise its interest rates much at all, and 10-year interest rates are going to remain very low (below 1% in the core countries). The yield spread between the United States and the euro zone is therefore going to remain wide for a long time. What should be expected as a result? The shift to a steady depreciation of the dollar against the euro ; If the long-term yield spread is greater than the gap between nominal potential growth rates , which is the case, then a convergence of equity market valuation between the United States and the euro zone; As real interest rates will also be higher in the United States than in the euro zone, more support for domestic demand in the euro zone than in the United States.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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