There has never been disinflation without a prior recession: Soft landings do not exist

There is now talk of the possibility of a soft landing in the United States and the euro zone. A soft landing would be a situation where inflation falls significantly without there being a recession or significant rise in unemployment, either spontaneously or due to a restrictive monetary policy. We look at inflation, the unemployment rate and growth in the United States and the euro zone since the 1960s to see whether there have been soft landings in the past. We find that in all cases except one (15 episodes out of 16), disinflation was accompanied by a fall in growth and a rise in unemployment, and that in all cases except 2020 (COVID), it followed a rise in interest rates.