Report
There is no link between the yield curve slope and future growth
Once again, we hear every day that the flattening of the yield curve in the United States and the euro zone points to a recession. We therefore have to repeat that this correlation between the yield curve slope and future growth has disappeared since 1990 in the United States and since 2000 in the euro zone. The disappearance of this correlation between yield curve slope and future growth can obviously be due to the disappearance of the correlation between inflation and the economy’s cyclical position .
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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