Report
Patrick Artus

There is no longer any real concept of an economic cycle

We will take the examples of the United States and the euro zone to show that the concept of the economic cycle is no longer really relevant today. Today, unlike in the past: I ncreases and inflation remain low throughout all growth periods; Monetary policy and fiscal policy in the United States remain expansionary throughout all growth periods; Asset prices (equities, real estate, etc.) rise rapidly from the start of growth periods; Recruitment difficulties appear from the start of growth periods. So we no longer see changes in wages, prices, monetary policy, fiscal policy, recruitment difficulties consistent with the GDP growth cycle that we used to see in the past, and in this sense the concept of the economic cycle has disappeared.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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