Report
Patrick Artus

There is no macroeconomic justification for the continuous rise in the public debt ratio in France

Japan shows us a clear example of what can justify a continuous rise in the public debt ratio at the macroeconomic level: Skewing of income distribution against employees, which requires offsetting weak household demand by fiscal deficits; Private sector deleveraging, which justifies an increase in public debt to offset it; Excess corporate savings, linked to the skewing of income distribution, which must be offset by government dissaving. But in France we see: Skewing of income distribution in favour of employees; An ongoing rise in private sector debt; Insufficient corporate savings to finance corporate investment. So there is no justification for a continuous rise in the public debt ratio in France: it should obviously rise during recessions, but fall during growth periods.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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