Report
Patrick Artus

There is no monetary neutrality: What consequences?

It is most often assumed that there is monetary neutrality, i.e. that in the long term, monetary policy has no impact on the real economy and determines only inflation. But we can now see that this is definitely not the case: In OECD countries, the expansionary monetary policy is in the long term leading to abnormally low real short-term and long-term interest rates (relative to real growth); besides, it does not seem to have any long-term effect on inflation; This means that in the long term, monetary policy has an impact on: Borrower solvency; Income distribution; Asset prices. The fact that there is no monetary neutrality in OECD countries means that: Monetary policy cannot have only an inflation target, since it has long-term effects on the real economy; Monetary policy must be coordinated with other economic policies that have an effect on the real economy, which makes central bank independence impossible.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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