There will be a recession (or very slow growth), but triggered by central banks

Some economists and investors are wondering whether inflation will be corrected (we look at the examples of the United States and the euro zone) by a recession without central banks having to raise interest rates sharply. But the problem with this view is that if interest rates rise little, there will be no recession: In the United States, and to a lesser degree in the euro zone, household demand will be stimulated by credit, despite the decline in purchasing power; In the euro zone, household demand will be stimulated by fiscal deficits, despite the decline in purchasing power. The most likely chain of events is that interest rates will rise more than expected; this rise will curb lending in the United States and force governments to conduct a more restrictive fiscal policy in the euro zone; and it is these developments linked to rising interest rates that will trigger a decline in demand, a rise in unemployment and a correction of inflation.