Report
Patrick Artus

Three irreconcilable economic policy objectives

It is likely that economic policies in many OECD countries will have three objectives. Increasing wages, especially low wages, to reduce inequality and poverty. Maintaining the increased public spending (healthcare, education, innovation, energy transition, reshoring, young people, etc.) while public debt ratios are already very high. Preventing asset price bubbles, reducing financial instability. But these three objectives are irreconcilable: if wages rise and inflation returns and interest rates rise, expansionary fiscal policies cannot be maintained. If fiscal policy remains expansionary, then interest rate increases must be prevented, and wage increases must therefore be avoided, and this would lead to a further rise in asset prices. If excessive asset price increases are to be avoided, then a more restrictive monetary policy is needed, making it impossible to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy. It will therefore be necessary to choose between these objectives; the current trend is to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy by foregoing wage increases and asset price stabilisation.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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