Till April’s dead, shed not a thread
The first quarter has just ended, with a lot of record figures on both the macro side (inflation at its highest in four decades) and in the markets (biggest ever drawdown on the govies indices, record volatility on commodities, EuroStoxx /Nasdaq/MSCI China down ~10% YTD). What’s next? Despite the renewed optimism in the markets, uncertainty seems to be on the rise everywhere: geopolitical risk is unlikely to diminish any time soon, asymmetry remains on the rise on the commodities and inflation fronts, the risk of recession has increased, and the margin of error for central bankers has been considerably reduced. In short, we will certainly still need to rely on fiscal support on the macro side and on the resilience of US consumers… and on the market side, we will need a great deal of flexibility.