January Employment Preview
We expect payrolls to rise 55k in January, which would be consistent with the previous two prints (50k in December and 56k in November ). A gain of this magnitude would be a continuation of decent, but unspectacular, job growth. Because the pace of job gains that is consistent with population increases is very uncertain given the slowdown in immigration, policymakers will keep a closer watch on the unemployment rate. Going forward, we see troubling signs for the labor market. Job openings data indicate that recruiting intensity continues to decline and a normalization of Beveridge Curve...