Towards a difficult social situation after the COVID crisis

We see three causes for a difficult social situation in OECD countries after the COVID crisis. As some economic sectors will be in difficulty and others will be grow ing , jobs will have to be transferred from the former to the latter, which may be difficult to achieve. Structural unemployment may rise sharply as a result. As companies will be in difficulty (fall in earnings, increase in debt), they will try to restore their profitability and improve their balance sheets, leading to a slowdown in wages, offshoring, the search for monopoly positions, calls for tax cuts and the rejection of environmental standards. The highly expansionary monetary policy being implemented to monetise fiscal deficits will lead to a sharp rise in asset prices and therefore to a drastic contrast between the difficult situation for some wage earners and rising wealth.