Report
Patrick Artus

Towards a major intergenerational conflict?

The COVID crisis is likely to lead to major intergenerational conflict , for a number of reasons (we document them in the case of France): It is likely to lead to a decline in potential growth, and therefore a conflict between the working population and pensioners for overall income distribution in a context of population ageing; It is likely to exacerbate the difference between the young, who often have temporary employment contracts and therefore are heavily affected by the crisis, or who seek to return to the labour market, and the "old", who are markedly better protected; Given the very expansionary monetary policy, it will probably give rise to bubbles in financial and real estate asset prices, which is a form of taxation of the young, who have to buy assets, in favour of the old, who hold wealth; Given the sharp rise in public debt ratios, there is a threat of a more restrictive fiscal policy in the future, affecting future generations, even though central banks' monetisation of public debt is preventing this for the time being, but this monetisation may not be permanent.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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