Report
Patrick Artus

Towards perpetually expansionary monetary policies and the associated imbalances

The contemporary strategy of central banks in OECD countries is becoming increasingly clear: During recessions, to implement ultra-expansionary monetary policies to stimulate demand and to allow governments to conduct highly expansionary fiscal policies; During growth periods, to maintain a monetary policy that is sufficiently expansionary to avoid financial crises (e.g. debt crises triggered by rising long-term interest rates, a drastic downward turn in prices of financial or real estate assets). So we are moving towards a situation where monetary policies are expansionary all the time, which has important consequences: After recessions, central banks do not try to reduce the size of their balance sheets, which means that government bonds issued during recessions are effectively cancelled, and that there is no limit to fiscal deficits; Liquidity is always abundant and interest rates are always low, leading to an increasingly rapid rise in asset prices after recessions, a lower and lower probability of bubbles bursting, and growing wealth inequality. We are therefore likely to live in "unbalanced" economies: very expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, permanent overvaluation of asset prices.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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