Trump 2.0: Economic implications of projected policies

The election of Donald Trump represents what could potentially be a sea change in policy. His extreme positions on trade and immigration could have profound effects on the US and global economic outlook if implemented as promised. The direction of his key policies is clear for tariffs (higher), immigration (lower), and taxes (lower), but how and when these polices are enacted are open questions. Trump’s campaign rhetoric was instructive to determining his governing priorities, but we think that ultimately governmental and market constraints (“stock market vigilantes”) will prevent Trump from following through with his most extreme proposals. However, even with a more tempered policy outlook compared to the campaign rhetoric, the outlook for policy will shift significantly. As such, we’ve updated our macroeconomic forecasts for 2025 and 2026 , where we see the bulk of this shift in policy effecting the outlook for 2026 .