Trump on 23 August: “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash”

Donald Trump’s remark that “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash” implies of course that the economic policies implemented by his administration have driven up share prices sharply. For now, this statement is correct: The tax reform ( reduction in earnings tax and incentive for US companies to repatriate earnings held abroad) has driven up earnings per share and share buybacks; The expansionary fiscal policy is boosting growth; The “attacks” on emerging countries are triggering capital outflows from these countries and fuelling capital flows to the United States . This is keeping US long-term interest rates abnormally low. But there is reason to be concerned for the future, given: Slowing growth due to the return to full employment (on the supply side) and the effects of protectionism (on the demand side); The continued normalisation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates; The external deficit and likely depreciation of the dollar that will result from the expansionary fiscal policy at full employment.