UK-NOWNAT: Better perspectives on growth for 2020

Brexit has been the main factor weighing on the UK econom y since June 2016. All the following unexcepted political events have made forecasting quite difficult . Th e weake r UK econom ic outlook has also s pread to the Euro Area. I n order to better assess in real time the underlying momentum of the United Kingdom economy we have developed a new tool UK-NowNat , which is built on our existing model for the euro area . Our model is based on a wide range of monthly indicators that allows us to take a “temperature check” on the UK economy in a systematic way each time new relevant data is released. After today’s release of the January PMI s , UK- NowNat now forecast s a gradual improvement for GDP growth: 0.12% qoq for the last quarter of 2019, 0.13% for Q1 2020 and 0.19% for Q2 2020.