Under what circumstances can a negative supply shock be good news for companies (and therefore equity markets)?
OECD countries have just been hit by a significant negative supply shock (rise in commodity prices, transport costs, semiconductor prices, etc.). Yet it is possible this shock could have positive consequences for companies, under two conditions: Companies have sufficient pricing power to pass on the increases in their costs to their prices. Their margins would then not fall; Central banks do not react to the rise in inflation. Real interest rates would then fall, which would be positive for companies. This configuration is now very likely to be present: the negative supply shock is positive for companies and therefore equity markets, but negative for consumers (due to the rise in prices) and lenders (due to the fall in real interest rates).