Report
Patrick Artus

Under what circumstances does the correlation between the long-term interest rate and inflation disappear?

The recent sharp rise in inflation in the United States and to a lesser degree in the euro zone has not led to a rise in long-term interest rates. We therefore examine: When the correlation between inflation and long-term interest rates has also disappeared in the past; What, when this is the case, the lack of correlation between long-term interest rates and inflation can be attributed to, in particular when it is inflation that rises: the absence of an acceleration in wages? Rise in inflation due only to commodity prices? The absence of a monetary policy response to the inflation? Underemployment? We find that: Decorrelations between rising inflation and rising long-term interest rates have previously occurred in the United States in 2005-2006, 2008 and 2011; and in the euro zone in 2008 and 2017-2018; Each time, it was due to some of the causes mentioned above (see breakdown in the conclusion); In 2021, the absence of both an acceleration in wages and a monetary policy response as well as underemployment have played a role.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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