Report
Patrick Artus

Understanding the key fiscal support mechanism during the COVID crisis

During the COVID crisis (2020-2021), production (GDP) has been reduced due to health constraints (lockdown, curfew, company closures). Governments have wanted to maintain the income level of households and companies through fiscal deficits, which have been monetised by central banks. But it has not been possible to spend this public income support, due to health constraints and the fall in production: it has inevitably been saved. So we can now see inevitable additional savings that are equal to the (monetised) fiscal support. The economic outlook therefore depends heavily on how these forced savings will be used: If they are spent, there will be strong growth in demand and inflationary pressures; If they are invested in different financial and real estate assets, the prices of these assets will rise. The question remains why this policy was implemented, as the public transfer payments could not be spent. The reason is that the people and companies that have received the public transfer payments and those that have accumulated forced savings are not the same.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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