Report
Patrick Artus

Understanding the new relationship between inflation, nominal interest rates and real interest rates

OECD countries are now looking at : Higher inflation (labour market pressures in some countries, energy transition); A moderate response by central banks to the inflation, due to their other objectives (debt sustainability, support for investment and employment); Therefore an under-indexation of nominal interest rates to inflation, lead ing the increase in inflation to push down real interest rates. This gives a rise in inflation very significant, new properties. This configuration where a rise in inflation leads to higher nominal interest rates but lower real interest rates is very comfortable for central banks: They can show that they are responding to inflation (even if only slightly); The decline in real interest rates is conducive to a decline in debt ratios; It boosts asset prices (equities, real estate and other real assets), giving investors a hedge against inflation; It supports investment in the energy transition.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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