Understanding the possible links between money creation and goods and services inflation
Does rapid growth in money creation lead to higher goods and services inflation? One has to look at the possible links between money creation and inflation: The direct link, which appears when money is essentially transaction money used to consume: an increase in the money supply then inevitably leads in the short run to a fall in interest rates and an increase in demand; and in the long run to an increase in the value of consumption. Goods and services prices therefore increase in both the short and long run; An indirect link via the exchange rate, which is found primarily in emerging countries but also in Japan: strong money creation leads to exchange rate depreciation and therefore to imported inflation; An indirect link via asset prices (financial and real estate). When money is essentially investment money, an increase in the money supply drives up the prices of other assets through a portfolio rebalancing mechanism, especially if long-term interest rates can fall no further. But rising asset prices can drive up goods and services prices in the long run (clearly not in the short run). The mechanism may be that a wealth effect stimulates demand or, as can be seen today in the United States, a fall in labour supply.