Indonesia Secures a Lower U.S. Tariff but Must Be Careful Not to Alienate China

Indonesia is the least exposed to the US in EM Asia in terms of GDP. And the deal announced by President Trump was met with mixed reactions – the US is imposing 19% import tariff on Indonesian goods, down from 32% threatened. The good news is that it puts Indonesia as third lowest in Asia and close to Vietnam’s and the Philippines’ level of 20%. Indonesia has a USD19bn trade surplus with the US and promised to purchase 19bn more American goods, from airplanes to agriculture products, reorientating more purchases towards the US.Why did Indonesia strike the deal with the US? China is Indonesia’s...

Fed chair a target once again

Lurking in the Shadows: The Race to be the Next Fed Chair

President Trump’s description of Jerome Powell as a “numbskull” and “loser” suggests that perhaps the President is not fully satisfied with Powell’s performance as Fed Chair and will be looking to make a change sooner rather than later. Though legal barriers may get in the way, this has led to much speculation about who will be named as successor (and when) and if a new Fed Chair will be able to remake the Fed in Trump’s image. Below we walk through the Fed’s internal governance dynamics, implications of nominating a shadow Fed Chair, and also take a look at some of the leading candidates...