United States: Can we see mechanisms that could drive growth markedly below potential growth?

More and more economists and investors are talking about a recession in the United States, i.e. growth markedly below potential growth (which is high thanks to the upturn in productivity gains). For growth to be markedly lower than potential growth in the United States, there would have to be: A cyclical downturn in investment (housing and corporate investment), caused by the saturation of needs; Weak exports, linked to weak global trade or a trade war; A rise in the household savings rate; A restrictive fiscal policy. Currently, we are seeing only a slowdown in housing investment, which is not sufficient to lead to very weak growth .