United States, China, European Union: Who is in a position of strength, the borrower or the lender?
If we look at financing flows , we see that Europe has replaced China in financing the United States’ deficits; if we look at stocks of financing, we see that China and Europe are large creditors of the United States. So who is in a position of strength? The lenders (China, Europe) or the borrower (the United States)? If the borrower defaults, it ruins the lenders, which should discourage the lenders from stopping lend ing ; this gives power to the borrower; But if the lenders cut off their financing, the borrower has to eliminate its external deficit, which requires a contraction in domestic demand and triggers a recession; this gives power to the lenders. So both lenders and borrowers are in a position of strength, which should lead to a de facto agreement as was the case in the past between China and the United States with the "Bretton Woods 2 system".