Report
Patrick Artus

United States, China, European Union: Who is in a position of strength, the borrower or the lender?

If we look at financing flows , we see that Europe has replaced China in financing the United States’ deficits; if we look at stocks of financing, we see that China and Europe are large creditors of the United States. So who is in a position of strength? The lenders (China, Europe) or the borrower (the United States)? If the borrower defaults, it ruins the lenders, which should discourage the lenders from stopping lend ing ; this gives power to the borrower; But if the lenders cut off their financing, the borrower has to eliminate its external deficit, which requires a contraction in domestic demand and triggers a recession; this gives power to the lenders. So both lenders and borrowers are in a position of strength, which should lead to a de facto agreement as was the case in the past between China and the United States with the "Bretton Woods 2 system".
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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