United States: Desperately seeking recession

The return to full employment could trigger a growth slowdown in the United States , but not a recession. If there is a slowdown but not a recession in the United States, investors can stay invested in US equities and credit. So everyone wonders what could trigger a recession in the United States in the future: It is unlikely that it would be household debt, which has decreased significantly; It is unlikely that it would be corporate debt, which is low; Real estate prices are fairly high, but without this going hand-in-hand with an increase in debt ratios; Securitisation is a minor phenomenon; The rise in the oil price is having no major negative effect on the United States; A sharp rise in inflation leading to a sharp rise in interest rates is not very likely at present. The two risks that should probably be watched most are: The risk of a halt in capital inflows to the United States; such a halt would trigger a rise in long-term interest rates and a significant depreciation of the dollar; The risk of a major equity market correction, as US equity valuations have become very high on the back of the tax reform, share buybacks and non-resident capital inflows.