United States, euro zone: Which credit markets are the most fragile?

Many investors are concerned about a possible deterioration in credit markets in the United States and the euro zone. Thanks to the demand-stimulating policies, we can rule out a significant weakening of growth in these two countries. We can also rule out a rise in interest rates. This leaves us with watching trends in profitability, comparing growth in real wages and productivity and determining whether a decline in profitability could cause a solvency problem. Profitability continues to increase in the United States, but, which is worrying, it has been declining in the euro zone since the second quarter of 2018 .