United States: What happens when a highly expansionary policy mix at full employment is implemented?
The Federal Reserve’s latest statements show that monetary policy will remain expansionary in the United States, while fiscal policy is becoming very expansionary. So what happens if a very expansionary policy mix is implemented at full employment? As a result of the decline in employees’ bargaining power, inflation is not appearing in the United States at present; The probability of a recession, i.e. of growth becoming markedly lower than potential growth, is definitely low ; The external deficit will increase markedly, and, due to the low interest rates, we should therefore expect a steep depreciation of the dollar.