Report
Patrick Artus

United States: What would be the effects of a sharp increase in low wages and a halt to growth in shale oil production?

Some of the “left-wing” Democratic candidates for the US presidential election (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, etc.) are campaigning on a platform to sharply increase low wages and lead the United States’ transition towards a low-carbon economy. This leads us to ask what the consequences would be of a radical change in US economic policy, with: A sharp increase in the minimum wage; An end to growth in shale oil production. US consumption would receive a large stimulus, but resurgent inflation (due to both the increase in wages and rising oil prices) would lead to a sharp increase in interest rates, which would spread from the United States to the rest of the world, leading to an across-the-board risk of a debt crisis and a loss of solvency.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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