Report
Patrick Artus

US growth comes at the expense of the rest of the world

US growth remained vigorous in the first half of 2018, but it is worrying that it comes at the expense of the rest of the world: The expansionary fiscal policy in the vicinity of full employment is leading to a deterioration in US foreign trade; to finance its external deficit, the United States needs to attract capital from the rest of the world, at the expense of the countries where this capital would be more efficient; This same fiscal policy and rapid growth may lead to a significant rise in US interest rates, which is obviously negative for the rest of the world; Moreover, the vigorous growth in the United States is taking place in a country where energy consumption and CO 2 emissions per unit of production are high, and it will therefore worsen the world’s climatic situation to a significant extent . The general point is as follows: it would be better to have vigorous growth in countries that need it more than the United States, such as low-income emerging countries, whereas global savings are currently being attracted to the United States because of its external deficit-creating growth .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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