US growth set to remain strong in 2024

Some observers have expressed concern about the slowdown in US growth in the first quarter of 2024 (1.6% annualised). But in reality, we should not be worried about a sharp slowdown in US growth, for several reasons: If we calculate the increase in purchasing power of per capita wages using inflation excluding rents imputed to homeowners (which does not affect purchasing power), the trend in 2024 is 2.3% per year; Since employment is increasing by 0.5% per year, the real payroll in the United States is increasing by 2.8% per year; Global trade is picking up, which should benefit US exports; US growth was depressed in the first quarter of 2024 by a very negative contribution of foreign trade, which is not reflected in the change in the US trade balance; Corporate investment is picking up, and household residential investment is recovering sharply; Fiscal policy will be more or less neutral in 2024, if we look at its effect on growth. All things considered , year-on-year GDP growth is expected to be around 2.5%.