US inflation reassures, but not French politics
This week blew hot and cold on the US macro front, with inflation slightly lower than expected (for the second time in a row), validating our disinflationary view, counterbalanced by the Fed bolstering its “higher for longer” stance with an upward revision of the dot plot (just one rate cut in 2024, four in 2025 and a terminal rate raised to 2.75%). The EUR markets are feeling the full brunt of the resurgence of French political risk with the surprise announcement of early legislative elections: the OAT-Bund spread has already widened by more than 27bps (above 75bps), the CAC is underperforming (-6%), V2X spikes above 21% and the EUR/USD implied volatility above 8%. There is little doubt that momentum will remain negative for EUR assets in the short term, given the extreme uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the French elections. There’s still time to take part in our H-2 2024 SURVEY before our MID-YEAR OUTLOOK next Thursday. Thank you for participating!