US shale oil has made oil prices countercyclical for oil-importing countries (including the euro zone)

When global growth becomes high, oil prices rise (this has been the case in the recent period from early 2016 to summer 2018). This rapidly leads to an increase in investment in shale oil in the United States and in shale oil production ( the case since summer 2017). This increase in shale oil production pushes down oil prices (the case since autumn 2018), which boosts demand just when the economy is slowing (this will be the case in 2019). The short shale oil cycle therefore means that oil prices are set to play a countercyclical role in oil-importing countries. If the oil price cycle were longer, the n the price increase in 2016-2017 would have given rise to additional oil production - and therefore lower prices - much too late to boost growth in 2019.