Venezuela, the nail in the coffin of the world order

The stunning military operation that the United States just conducted in Venezuela marks more than just another chapter in hemispheric power politics. It will reshape global geopolitics in ways we are only beginning to understand. While there is no doubt that Maduro’s regime should end – he did not legally win the latest national election in July 2024, for one thing – Trump’s actions have nothing to do with reinstating democracy. Rather, they are a blatant power grab and tell the world that the US will not tolerate external powers controlling Latin America – all the more so Venezuela, with its massive oil reserves and strategic Caribbean position.The message is particularly pointed for China, which has expanded its influence in Venezuela since the 2008 global financial crisis pushed the regime to the brink. In exchange for some USD 60 billion in loans, cheap Venezuelan oil has been feeding China, which also gained access to precious metals and critical raw materials that Venezuela has in abundance. China’s response – condemning the strikes as “hegemonic acts” that violate international law – was predictable. But behind the official communication, the implication of Venezuela is profound: If the US can abduct a country’s leader and decide who stays in power, why not China in Taiwan? Some have suggested that the US move on Venezuela – as well as its fixation on Greenland – will leave space for China to make gains in the Pacific, and potentially Russia in Europe. This is too simplistic. There is no evidence the Trump administration views ceding the Pacific as the price for hemispheric dominance, certainly not in the US National Security Strategy released last December.Trump’s approach appears more straightforward: America can and will act wherever its interests demand. The Venezuela operation is not a trade-off; it represents an unconstrained projection of power.China’s immediate gain is being able to portray itself as a guarantor of the UN Charter to an increasingly sceptical Global South. The motto goes as follows: “While Washington bombs capitals and abducts presidents, China offers loans and infrastructure”. This soft power advantage, bringing closer those already critical of US unilateralism, may prove more valuable than any Taiwan precedent.Meanwhile Russia, which closely followed China’s lead in condemning the strikes, can draw its own silver lining: If Venezuela is no longer available as a zone of influence, other places will become more attractive. This logic is chilling for Europe. A United States demonstrating that power simply takes what it wants validates Russia’s worldview entirely. Why shouldn’t Moscow pursue aggressive actions against European targets, from expanded cyber operations to hybrid warfare, now emboldened by Washington’s ruthless disregard for international norms? This brings us to Europe’s response. Instead of standing out as defender of the international liberal order, the European Union’s statement was a masterclass in meaningless diplomacy: “monitoring the situation,” calling for “restraint,” noting that “principles must be respected.” Where was the outrage? Where was the clear denunciation? Individual European leaders offered carefully calibrated responses designed to offend no one and stand for nothing, noting Maduro’s illegitimacy while suggesting international law matters, as if these constituted a coherent position.The reality is that European leaders are lost in a world that no longer operates by rules they recognise. They cannot bring themselves to forcefully criticise Washington – their security guarantor and nominal ally. Yet they cannot embrace actions that demolish the very international architecture Europe has championed. So they split the difference with tepid statements satisfying no one. The uncomfortable reality Europeans must face is stark: We are witnessing what Nietzsche called the “Umwertung aller Werte” – a transvaluation of all values. The United States no longer upholds the democratic values and respect for international law it once proclaimed. Instead, it has adopted the logic of the autocracies it claims to oppose: might makes right, spheres of influence matter more than sovereignty, and power justifies action. Europe can no longer shelter behind American power. The contradiction has become unsustainable. This confronts Europe with a choice it has avoided for decades: genuine strategic autonomy or continued irrelevance. Europe needs a united foreign policy and a common army, not merely for defence but to create and defend its own sphere of influence. If Europe fails to act decisively, Russia will fill the vacuum across Eastern Europe and the Balkans while the two superpowers consolidate their areas of influence – the United States in the Western Hemisphere, China in the Pacific (the US permitting). Once that consolidation is complete, these powers will turn their attention to dividing Europe itself, which by then will already be fragmented and weakened by relentless Russian pressure.Strategic autonomy does not end in trade defence toolkits. A coordinated foreign policy and army can only be achieved through the construction of a state, possibly a federal state. The problem is we are nowhere near this outcome. With notable exceptions, like Mario Draghi’s calls for transformative integration, European leaders remain trapped in incrementalism. They tinker with coordination mechanisms while the world transforms around them.The Venezuela crisis should serve as the last wake-up call for Europe to act aggressively on its integration, which must include foreign policy and defence, which cannot be achieved without moving towards a federation. *This is a reprint. This article was also published by Euractiv./opinion/venezuela-the-nail-on-the-coffin-of-the-world-order/