Venezuela: the upending of values and another warning to Europe

The stunning military operation conducted by the United States on 2 January to remove Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro sends an unmistakable message: the Monroe Doctrine is back and the US will not tolerate external powers exerting control in Latin America. However, the consequences of the US intervention in Venezuela extend far beyond the Americas. In particular, China has expanded its influence in Venezuela since 2008, when the global financial crisis and collapsing oil prices threatened the regime of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez. In exchange for some $60 billion in loans, China benefitted from cheap Venezuelan oil and access to precious metals and increasing critical raw materials that Venezuela has in abundance. In this context, China's official response, condemning the US actions as “hegemonic acts” that violate international law, was predictable.But China may also gain from the US intervention. For some, the attack points to a US focus on the Western Hemisphere, leaving space for China in the Pacific and potentially for Russia in Europe. If the US can abduct a country’s leader and decide who stays in power, why not China where it has its core interests – Taiwan?China also gains because the US intervention in Venezuela strengthens China’s portrayal of itself as a guarantor of the UN Charter to an increasingly sceptical Global South. The message is that,“while Washington bombs capitals and abducts presidents, China offers loans and infrastructure”. This soft power advantage may prove more valuable than any advantage over Taiwan.But China must also manage its interests in the Pacific very carefully. There is no evidence – certainly not in November’s US National Security Strategy – that the Trump administration views ceding the Pacific as the price for hemispheric dominance. Trump’s approach appears more straightforward than a division of the world into spheres of interest: the US can and will act wherever its interests demand. The Venezuela operation doesn’t represent a trade-off – it represents unconstrained power projection.This logic is chilling for Europe. The US demonstrating that power can simply take what it wants validates the worldview of Russia’s President Putin. Why shouldn’t Moscow, now emboldened by Washington’s disregard for international norms, attack European targets, from expanded cyber operations to hybrid warfare? European responses to the US intervention have been calibrated carefully, designed to offend no one and stand for nothing, noting Maduro’s illegitimacy – he did not win the July 2024 election in Venezuela – while suggesting international law still matters. European leaders cannot bring themselves to forcefully criticise Washington – their security guarantor and nominal ally. Yet they cannot embrace actions that demolish the international architecture Europe has championed.The reality Europeans must face is thus stark: what Nietzsche called the Umwertung aller Werte, or upending of values. The US no longer stands for democratic values and respect for international law. Instead, it has adopted the logic of the autocracies it claims to oppose: might makes right, spheres of influence matter more than sovereignty and power justifies action.Venezuela is yet another case that should make Europe react and, yet, Europe does not. Europe needs a united foreign policy and a common army. Venezuela points to that common army being needed not only for Europe to protect itself but also to defend its neighbourhood, as others defend theirs. If Europe fails to act decisively, Russia will fill the vacuum across Eastern Europe and the Balkans, while the two superpowers consolidate their areas of influence – the US primarily in the Western Hemisphere, China in the Pacific (the US permitting). Once that consolidation is complete, the US and China will turn their attention to Europe, which by then will be fragmented and weakened by relentless Russian pressure. This might happen even earlier if President Donald Trump follows through on his threats to annex Greenland.However, a fully coordinated European foreign policy and army can only be achieved through the construction of a state, possibly a federal state. Europe is nowhere near this outcome, remaining trapped in incrementalism. The Venezuela crisis should serve as a wake-up call for Europe to act aggressively on a united foreign policy and defence, which cannot be achieved without moving towards a federation.*This is a reprint of Bruegel article in the First Glance series./first-glance/venezuela-upending-values-and-another-warning-europe