Venezuela's Impact on Asian Investors has three Key Channels
US forces targeted military operation in Venezuela and Maduro's removal is a major global event with relevant consequences for Asian investors even if they so far seem to have shrugged it off. Three key channels of impact on Asia stand out.First, China's deep economic stakes in Venezuela could be at risk, built on $60 billion in loans restructured into oil-for-loan swaps and investments in precious metals and critical raw materials. Since Maduro's 2023 Beijing visit elevating ties to an "all-weather strategic partnership," Chinese investments surged in oil joint ventures like Sinovensa and mining via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Venezuela’s future, as the largest source of oil reserves, is clearly relevant for Asian oil importers. As for China, the future of its investments in Venezuela could offer sobering lessons for China's global investment, especially in high-risk countries.Second, the US action will have a bearing on Beijing's calculus on Taiwan. On the one hand, it can justify China’s potential actions. On the other, it makes the whole operation riskier given Trump’s unpredictability.Third, The US’ action in Venezuela points to a world based on the “law of the jungle” rather than the “rule of law”. This could embolden Asian rogue states, like North Korea, with recent missile tests. It should also bring the attention to Myanmar’s junta, potentially escalating.All in all, Asian investors should closely monitor this event for three critical reasons. Markets’ indifference, tech-obsessed, is untenable; geopolitical encroachments on nodes like Taiwan may jolt a much stronger reaction, mandating diversification and hedges right now.