Report
Patrick Artus

Very low long-term interest rates and long-term growth

OECD countries are currently characterised by very low long-term interest rates. What effect do these very low interest rates have on long-term growth in OECD countries? A first effect is positive: the very low interest rates make it possible to finance public and private investments that yield returns in the long term, and which cannot be financed in an environment of high interest rates: renewable energies, infrastructure, aviation, pharmaceuticals, etc. The second effect is negative: the very low interest rates keep inefficient zombie firms alive, which prevents production factors from being reallocated to more efficient companies or sectors of the economy , and therefore prevents the Schumpeterian process from taking place . Altogether, it seems that productivity gains in OECD countries remain low: the negative effect of low interest rates (zombie firms) is not for the time being offset by the positive effect (financing of investments that provide returns in the long term).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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