Report
Patrick Artus

Wages and nominal interest rates are no longer indexed to prices: What consequences?

In the contemporary period: The indexation of nominal wages to prices has become low, which is linked to wage earners’ loss of bargaining power; It is believed that the reaction of nominal interest rates to a rise in inflation would be weak for a long time to come, as central banks do not want to take the risk of a debt crisis. This means that the consequences of an exogenous inflationary shock (e.g. due to a rise in commodity prices) would be very different from what they were in the past. Such a shock today would: Not trigger high inflation from the price- wage loop; Be very negative for employees and lenders, while companies and asset holders would be protected, which is the opposite of the situation in the past.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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