We are getting there

Edito This week marks an air of déjà vu that we would have liked to forget, with the fear of new lockdowns becoming real in Europe. The macro and micro impact will certainly be less pronounced than in the 1st wave but more than enough to break the positive momentum (for Q4) and further deteriorate corporate balances sheets. European equities and oil recorded their worst weekly losses since wave 1. In addition to these negative dynamics ( new cases increase fast in the United States as well) the American elections are coming up on Tuesday, with its share of uncertainties despite unilateral polls ( contested results, “ surprise ” victory of D. Trump, presidential victory without a majority in Congress) but a possibility of seeing the market refocus on the future (in case of a Democratic sweep) more than on the darkened present. The FED, like the ECB this week, will remain the invariant, but volatility should remain high in the coming weeks.