Report
Patrick Artus

We have to stop talking about deflation in the United States, the euro zone and even Japan

Admittedly, headline inflation and core inflation are zero in 2020 as a result of the COVID crisis , but this should not lead to talk of deflation. This is because: In 2021, inflation will pick up again - at least in the United States and in the euro zone - thanks to the improvement of the economy, the need for companies to pass their costs on to their prices and the upswing in commodity prices; Even if inflation remained very low in the United States and the euro zone, and also in Japan, interest rates are so low as a result of the expansionary monetary policies that real interest rates would still be lower than real potential growth, which rules out the prospect of deflation. In a deflation situation, real interest rates are abnormally high relative to growth.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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