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We should keep in mind that the most likely scenario for OECD countries is moderate growth, close to potential growth, and not a recession
There is a lot of talk about recession in OECD countries nowadays. Admittedly: The unemployment rate has returned to the vicinity of the structural unemployment rate, which increases hiring difficulties; Global trade is weakened, and traditional industry is facing problems. But we should not forget all the factors that protect against a recession: Very low interest rates, which keep all economic agents solvent and prevent a downturn in asset prices; Expansionary fiscal policies; Low inflation, which boosts purchasing power; The high level of corporate profitability, which prevents a credit crisis and a significant downturn in investment and employment. All things considered, the most likely scenario is one of modest growth, close to potential growth.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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