We should not be too optimistic about growth in 2022

The consensus is that growth in 2022 will be vigorous (we look at the United States and the euro zone). And yet: Fiscal deficits will be significantly smaller in 2022 than in 2021; Real wages are falling significantly in 2021 (due to the surge in inflation); Companies face severe hiring difficulties; The prospect of more restrictive monetary policies could drive up the various risk premia. All these developments are negative for growth in 2022. To be sure, some factors point in the opposite direction: The possibility that a portion of the accumulated savings is spent, especially as wealth effects are very positive; The upturn in corporate profitability; The stabilisation of commodity prices. On the whole, however, we should not be overly positive about 2022 growth in the United States and the euro zone.