Report
Patrick Artus

What accounts for Portugal’s success? Was it the end of austerity?

Since late 2015, Portugal’s socialist government has implemented a social-democratic agenda : minimum wage hike, indexation of pensions to prices, increase in minimum welfare benefits, reduction in working time. This was a reversal of the previous policy of austerity carried out from 2011 to 2014 at the behest of the European Union and the IMF. The country then enjoyed strong growth until the COVID crisis and eliminated its fiscal deficits. What accounts for this economic success between 2015 and 2019? Was it due to the social-democratic policies implemented? There are several possibilities: Strong cost competitiveness and attractive tax ation during the period of austerity attracted investment and jobs; Growth in tourism and in real estate, i.e. a fairly “low-end” model; Growth stimulus via wage policy and public income transfers introduced by the socialist government. Were the positive effects a result of the policy of tax and social competition carried out in Portugal, or has there been a structural improvement in the Portuguese economy (productivity, employment rate, investment effort, potential growth, weight of industry, higher product sophistication, market share gains)? Altogether, strong cost competitiveness, which the social-democratic policies did not destroy, played a key role. Structural progress has been mixed (the employment rate and market shares have improved, but productivity and product sophistication have not).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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