What accounts for the difference between the post-COVID recoveries in the four largest euro-zone countries?
When we look at the four largest euro-zone countries, we see after the COVID crisis: In France, a rapid recovery in production and employment; In Spain, a significant delay in the recovery of activity; In Italy and Germany, an intermediate situation. What accounts for these major differences? We can think of the following relevant explanations: Some countries have significant exposure to business sectors that are in long-term difficulty: this is the case in particular for tourism and construction in Spain; Fiscal or monetary policy has been less stimulatory in some countries: credit has recovered less in Spain and Italy, the structural fiscal deficit has increased less in Spain; Some countries have suffered from a decline in the labour force (in labour supply): this is the case for Italy; Some countries are affected by high household or corporate precautionary savings: this is the case in Germany and Spain. Overall, Spain has suffered the most, due to the decline in construction and tourism activity, a weaker recovery in credit, less fiscal expansion, and an increase in precautionary savings.