Report
Patrick Artus

What accounts for the difference between the post-COVID recoveries in the four largest euro-zone countries?

When we look at the four largest euro-zone countries, we see after the COVID crisis: In France, a rapid recovery in production and employment; In Spain, a significant delay in the recovery of activity; In Italy and Germany, an intermediate situation. What accounts for these major differences? We can think of the following relevant explanations: Some countries have significant exposure to business sectors that are in long-term difficulty: this is the case in particular for tourism and construction in Spain; Fiscal or monetary policy has been less stimulatory in some countries: credit has recovered less in Spain and Italy, the structural fiscal deficit has increased less in Spain; Some countries have suffered from a decline in the labour force (in labour supply): this is the case for Italy; Some countries are affected by high household or corporate precautionary savings: this is the case in Germany and Spain. Overall, Spain has suffered the most, due to the decline in construction and tourism activity, a weaker recovery in credit, less fiscal expansion, and an increase in precautionary savings.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch