Report
What are the conditions for the energy transition to increase growth?
The energy transition will initially lead to a decline in the level of potential GDP, since there will be capital destruction (in economic sectors using or producing fossil fuels). But what are the conditions for faster growth in the future? 1. The additional investment needed must not crowd out other investments, i.e. not lead to a significant rise in real interest rates. 2. Workers who lose their jobs because of the energy transition (in automotive, electricity production from fossil fuels, etc.) must find another job and this new job must be more skilled than the job destroyed. 3. For each country, equipment for renewable energies must be produced in sufficient part in the country and not imported, so that the energy transition represents a reshoring of production thanks to the end of the import of fossil energies
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Natixis
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Patrick Artus
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