Report
Patrick Artus

What are the consequences of central banks maintaining very large balance sheets?

The Federal Reserve and the ECB will reduce the size of their balance sheets by a mere fraction of their previous increase (since 2008 or since 2020). Quantitative tightening is much smaller than quantitative easing. Since the size of the central bank’s balance sheet has an impact primarily on asset prices, in the future we should therefore expect: A flatter yield curve than in the past (the increase in the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet since 2008 has led to a 116 basis point fall in US long-term interest rates; the increase in the size of the ECB's balance sheet since 2014 has led to a 104 basis point fall in euro long-term interest rates); Higher stock market indices and real estate prices than in the past, for the same cyclical situation. An unfavourable consequence of maintaining a large central bank balance sheet will therefore be an increase in wealth inequality.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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