Report
Patrick Artus

What are the consequences of low and, above all, exogenous long-term interest rates?

The monetary policies implemented by central banks in OECD countries have led to long-term interest rates that are not only low but, above all, exogenous (administered, set by central banks). As a result of this change in monetary policies: Long-term interest rates no longer react to their usual determinants (growth and expected inflation, fiscal deficit and public debt), and therefore no longer give information on the future path of the economy; Long-term interest rates no longer play their role as a shock absorber for economic cycles (they no longer vary with growth) and financial cycles (they no longer rise when risk aversion declines and risky asset prices and debt rise); It is no longer possible to calculate borrower solvency conditions and the fundamental values of financial and real estate assets, since long-term interest rates are structurally lower than growth.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch