Report
What are the lags between commodity prices (in the broad sense), production prices and consumer prices?
In the summer and autumn of 2021, commodity prices (in the broad sense: raw materials, electronics, transport) were very high, and then they fell significantly. When will this fall in commodity prices be reflected in consumer prices? To find out, we look at lags between commodity prices, producer prices and consumer prices in the United States and the euro zone. This analysis shows that the peak in inflation (for consumer prices) occurs 2 to 3 months after the peak in commodity prices in the United States, and 4 to 5 months later in the euro zone. This means that the peak of inflation (for consumer prices) is likely to be in December 2021 in the United States and in February 2022 in the euro zone, as inflation is likely to fall.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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